REFORMATION
In 2025 and 2026 the President of the United States called, again and again, for Canada to become the fifty-first state. His Vice-President, his Secretary of State and his Secretary of Commerce said the same. Duties under a declared emergency, a refused renewal of CUSMA and a tariff statute unused for ninety-six years stand behind the words. In the same two years the United States seized the President of Venezuela in his own capital, went to war with Iran, and demanded the purchase of Greenland under the threat of duties on eight of its Allies. No published instrument obliges any state to answer a nuclear attack on Canada with any particular action. The head of state of Canada is whoever is King of the United Kingdom.
I DURESS
2025
| Date | Said or done |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | At Mar-a-Lago the President-elect is asked whether he will rule out military or economic coercion to take Greenland and the Panama Canal: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.” Of Canada he says he would use “economic force” and rules out military force. The border is an “artificially drawn line”, and “we basically protect Canada”. CNN · Radio Canada International |
| 20 Jan 2025 | Inaugural address, on the Panama Canal: “We gave it to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” Executive Order 14172, signed the same day, renames the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. The White House · GovInfo |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Executive Order 14193 declares a national emergency over the northern border and imposes duties of 25 per cent on Canadian goods and 10 per cent on Canadian energy. In force 4 March 2025. GovInfo |
| 2 Feb 2025 | In Panama City the Secretary of State tells the President of Panama that the status quo at the Canal is unacceptable and that “absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.” Four days later Panama announces its withdrawal from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Department of State · MercoPress |
| 4 Mar 2025 | Before a joint session of Congress, on Greenland: “One way or the other, we’re going to get it.” CNBC |
| 11 Mar 2025 | The President orders the duty on Canadian steel and aluminium doubled to 50 per cent and writes that Canada should become the fifty-first state. The increase is withdrawn the same day, after Ontario suspends its electricity surcharge. CNN |
| 12 Mar 2025 | The Secretary of Commerce, on Fox Business: “the best way to actually merge the economies of Canada and the United States is for Canada to become our 51st state.” The Hill |
| 2 Apr 2025 | Executive Order 14257 subjects imports from almost every country to an additional duty of 10 per cent, with higher rates for the countries listed in its annex. Goods of Canada and Mexico stay under the emergency duties of February. 90 Fed. Reg. 15041 |
| Apr 2025 | The Secretary of State, on NBC’s Meet the Press before the federal election in Canada: the President thinks Canada would be better off as a state, and a country that cannot survive without unfair trade should become one. Department of State |
| 6 May 2025 | In the Oval Office the Prime Minister of Canada says Canada is not for sale. The President answers: “Never say never.” NPR |
| 27 May 2025 | The day the King opens the Parliament of Canada, the President posts that the Golden Dome will cost Canada $61 billion “if they remain a separate, but unequal, Nation” and nothing “if they become our cherished 51st State”. CBC |
| 21 Jun 2025 | United States aircraft bomb Iran. The President: “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.” NPR |
| 25 Jun 2025 | At The Hague the Allies commit “to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements as well as defence-and security-related spending by 2035”. NATO |
| 27 Jun 2025 | The President ends “ALL discussions on Trade with Canada” over its digital services tax. On 29 June Canada withdraws the tax, the day before its first payments fall due. CBC · CNBC |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada: duties of 35 per cent from 1 August 2025, to rise if Canada retaliates. Executive order signed 31 July 2025. CBC |
| 2 Sept 2025 | The United States military strikes a boat from Venezuela in the Caribbean and kills the eleven people aboard. The President calls them members of Tren de Aragua. CNN |
| 5 Sept 2025 | Executive Order 14347 authorizes the Department of Defense to call itself the Department of War. GovInfo |
| 23 Oct 2025 | The President terminates all trade negotiations with Canada over an Ontario advertisement that quotes President Reagan on tariffs. CNN |
| 25 Oct 2025 | “Because of their serious misrepresentation of the facts, and hostile act, I am increasing the Tariff on Canada by 10% over and above what they are paying now.” CNN |
| Dec 2025 | The National Security Strategy of the United States: “we will assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine”. The White House |
| 16 Dec 2025 | The President orders a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. CNN |
| 21 Dec 2025 | The President names the Governor of Louisiana special envoy to Greenland. The Governor calls it “a volunteer position to make Greenland a part of the U.S.” Louisiana Illuminator · ABC News |
2026
| Date | Said or done |
|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | United States forces strike Venezuela and seize its President, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, to face charges in New York. Military Times |
| 7 Jan 2026 | The United States withdraws from 66 international organizations. Department of State · The White House |
| 8 Jan 2026 | On Fox News, of the cartels: “we are going to start now hitting land”. “The cartels are running Mexico.” CNBC |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Duties of 10 per cent are announced on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland, to rise to 25 per cent on 1 June unless a deal is in place for “the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”. NPR |
| 21 Jan 2026 | At Davos, the day after the Prime Minister of Canada spoke there: “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” And: “Canada gets a lot of freebies from us.” Of Greenland: “I won’t use force.” The duties on the eight Allies are dropped the same day, after a “framework of a future deal” with the Secretary General of NATO. CBC · CBC · NPR |
| 23 Jan 2026 | Canada’s invitation to the President’s Board of Peace is withdrawn. NBC News |
| 24 Jan 2026 | A duty of 100 per cent on all Canadian goods is threatened if Canada makes a trade deal with China: “If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China […] he is sorely mistaken.” CNN |
| 29 Jan 2026 | The President says the United States is decertifying Bombardier Global Express jets and threatens a duty of 50 per cent on every aircraft made in Canada. CNBC |
| 29 Jan 2026 | An executive order declares a national emergency over Cuba and sets up duties on goods from any country that sells or otherwise provides oil to Cuba. The American Presidency Project |
| Jan 2026 | The Financial Times reports that officials of the Department of State met three times since April 2025 with leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project, which seeks a referendum on the secession of Alberta from Canada. A senior official of the Department: “The Department regularly meets with civil society types.” CNN · NBC News |
| 10 Feb 2026 | On the Gordie Howe International Bridge: “I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them.” CNN |
| 20 Feb 2026 | The Supreme Court of the United States: “IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.” The same day Proclamation 11012 imposes, for 150 days, a surcharge of 10 per cent on imports from every country under section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Goods of Canada entering free of duty under CUSMA are excepted. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump · 91 Fed. Reg. 9339 |
| 28 Feb 2026 | The United States and Israel strike Iran. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is killed. CNN · NPR |
| 10 Mar 2026 | The President calls the Prime Minister of Canada “the future Governor of Canada”. CTV News |
| 1 Jun 2026 | “51st State!”, posted over a report that Canada had entered a technical recession. TIME |
| 1 Jul 2026 | At the first joint review the United States declines to renew CUSMA: “The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form.” Canada and Mexico had asked to renew it. The agreement now depends on a review every year. White & Case |
| 7–8 Jul 2026 | At the NATO summit in Ankara the President says Greenland “should be controlled by the United States” and that the United States could pull its forces out of Europe. The United States strikes Iran overnight, after Iran hits three merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC · Associated Press |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Proclamations 11046, 11047 and 11048 impose duties of 50 per cent on Canadian alcoholic beverages, dairy and motor vehicles under section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. It is the first use of that section in its ninety-six years, at its statutory ceiling. The proclamation recites that the section authorizes the exclusion of Canadian goods from the United States. 91 Fed. Reg. 46639 |
| 21 Aug 2026 | The Secretary of Commerce hardens the terms of a negotiated trade agreement less than an hour before the deadline, and the talks between Canada and the United States collapse. The Hub · Global News |
| 22 Aug 2026 | The duties under section 338 enter into force after a suspension of three days. Proclamation 11056, 91 Fed. Reg. 54789 |
| 24 Aug 2026 | The Vice-President, at a rally in Maine: “We have to remember Canada is a state. Sorry, Freudian slip.” Canada “quite literally would get invaded by a foreign country were it not for the umbrella of protection provided by the United States of America.” HuffPost |
| 7 Sept 2026 | “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES!” CBC |
| 16 Sept 2026 | The European Union offers Canada the place of its first associate member. The President calls the idea “laughable”. NPR |
| 19 Sept 2026 | Denmark agrees to a new United States military presence in Greenland. The Secretary of State: “Greenland will forever be part of the strategic defense area of North America and exclude any adversary from it and the surrounding area.” NPR |
| 22 Sept 2026 | At the General Assembly of the United Nations: “The United States will no longer permit threats to America to gain a foothold anywhere in the Western Hemisphere — and if necessary, we will use our unmatched military might to secure the vital national interests of the United States.” The White House |
II UNDEFENDED
| Instrument or date | What it says |
|---|---|
| North Atlantic Treaty | Article 5: each Party assists the Party attacked by “such action as it deems necessary”. Article 13: any Party leaves one year after notice. NATO |
| NORAD Agreement | 28 April 2006. Aerospace warning, aerospace control and maritime warning. No undertaking by either Party to defend the other against nuclear attack. Twelve months’ notice ends it. Canada Treaty Series E105060 |
| 14 Sept 2017 | The deputy commander of NORAD tells the Commons defence committee that the U.S. policy is not to defend Canada against a ballistic missile attack. CBC |
| 24 Jun 2025 | On the way to the NATO summit at The Hague, the President is asked about Article 5: “Depends on your definition.” “There’s numerous definitions of Article 5.” Al Jazeera |
| 17 Sept 2026 | National Defence will neither confirm nor deny that it holds any record of an obligation of any state to defend Canada against nuclear attack. The finding |
| 23 Sept 2026 | The NORAD and USNORTHCOM FOIA office: the records of HQ NORAD are not subject to Canada’s access law and not under the control of National Defence. The message in full |
| 23 Sept 2026 | The Prime Minister of Canada tells The New York Times that he has prepared for the “extreme tail risk” of military action by the United States against Canada. The Minister of National Defence, on 24 September: “a tail risk”. CBC |
III DESERTION
The United Kingdom
| Date | Said or done |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2025 | In the Oval Office the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom hands the President a letter from the King inviting him to an unprecedented second state visit. Asked about Canada: “I think you’re trying to find a divide between us that doesn’t exist.” Global News |
| 14 Jun 2025 | On the way to Ottawa, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: “Canada is an independent, sovereign country and a much-valued member of the Commonwealth.” ITV News |
| 10 Jul 2025 | The Northwood Declaration with France: “there is no extreme threat to Europe that would not prompt a response by our two nations.” Canada is not named. GOV.UK |
| 16–18 Sept 2025 | State visit of the President of the United States to the United Kingdom, at Windsor Castle. |
| 18 Dec 2025 | The UK-France Nuclear Steering Group meets on “strengthening deterrence in Europe”. GOV.UK |
| 17–18 Jan 2026 | Greenland, a territory of Denmark. The United Kingdom takes part in a Danish-led military exercise there and is threatened with duties for it. The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: “Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of NATO allies is completely wrong.” House of Commons Library |
| 18 Aug 2026 | The Ministry of Defence guide to the deterrent, as updated: “we would only consider using our nuclear weapons in extreme circumstances of self-defence, including the defence of our NATO Allies.” GOV.UK |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Requests under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 to the Ministry of Defence and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office for any instrument, beyond Article 5, of an obligation of the United Kingdom to defend Canada against nuclear attack, and for the conditions under which its nuclear declaration to NATO applies to an attack on Canada; answers due 23 October 2026. The same question to the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee; answer due 15 October 2026. |
Australia
| Date | Said or done |
|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026 | The Prime Minister of Canada in Canberra. The joint statement commits the two countries to “a world governed by rights and rules, not fear or force” and to seek combined military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It does not name the United States, annexation or the sovereignty of Canada. Five days later the President of the United States calls the Prime Minister of Canada “the future Governor of Canada”. Prime Minister of Australia |
| 25 Sept 2026 | The secretariat of the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, within seven hours of a letter on the obligation to defend Canada against nuclear attack: “The Committee does not hold records of the type you refer to, which fall outside its remit.” The matter is referred to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The answer in full |
| 25 Sept 2026 | Requests under the Freedom of Information Act 1982: to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for any document recording an obligation of Australia to defend Canada against nuclear attack, and to both that Department and the Department of Defence for the instrument of the assurance of the United States to Australia; answers due 25 October 2026. |
The Commonwealth
The Commonwealth Charter of 2012 contains no undertaking of mutual defence. On 15 May 2025 The Round Table, the Commonwealth journal of international affairs, recorded that the Secretary-General had issued no statement of solidarity with Canada, and set it against the public solidarity of the Commonwealth with the United Kingdom over the Falkland Islands in 1982. The Round Table
IV ONE-WAY ALLEGIANCE
On 28 October 2019 the Court of Appeal of Quebec held that, by a principle of symmetry found in the preamble and section 9 of the Constitution Act, 1867, whoever is King of the United Kingdom is King of Canada. The Supreme Court of Canada declined to hear an appeal. Motard c. Procureur général du Canada, 2019 QCCA 1826
I swear (or affirm) that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth the Second, Queen of Canada, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will faithfully observe the laws of Canada, including the Constitution, which recognizes and affirms the Aboriginal and treaty rights of First Nations, Inuit and Métis peoples, and fulfil my duties as a Canadian citizen.
Citizenship Act, R.S.C. 1985, c. C-29, Schedule, oath or affirmation of citizenship, text in force as captured on 28 September 2026
| Date | Said or done |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2025 | The King wears Canadian decorations aboard HMS Prince of Wales, the day after receiving the Prime Minister of Canada. No statement is issued. Newsweek |
| 27 May 2025 | The King opens the Parliament of Canada with a speech written by the Government of Canada. The same day the President of the United States offers Canada the Golden Dome free of charge as the fifty-first state. |
| 16–18 Sept 2025 | The King receives the President of the United States at Windsor Castle. |
| 28 Apr 2026 | At the state dinner in the White House the King reminds the President, in jest, that he is the head of state of Canada. CBC |
| 1 Jun 2026 | The President posts “51st State!”. |
V REFORMATION
Verification
| Capture | SHA-256, first 16 |
|---|---|
| CNN, 7 January 2025 | cbda5682dc6de345 |
| Radio Canada International, 7 January 2025 | ba9230209ca921f3 |
| The White House, inaugural address, 20 January 2025 | af351df59c4d128f |
| Executive Order 14172, GovInfo | 344168a90a12c9cc |
| Department of State, 2 February 2025 | 0608c35601c30ca9 |
| MercoPress, 7 February 2025 | 9d0944dee0a12d4d |
| CNBC, 4 March 2025 | fc2279b6e43e5819 |
| Executive Order 14257, Federal Register | 3a4df0606c889ae0 |
| CBC, 27 May 2025 | 875938f9c77dcca0 |
| NPR, 21 June 2025 | 0b034adc08d152d6 |
| Al Jazeera, 24 June 2025 | 925f55a81fa18540 |
| The Hague Summit Declaration, NATO | 88c81a169110b3fa |
| CBC, 27 June 2025 | 6998197a4fb74b5a |
| CNBC, 30 June 2025 | 3698078bb0eeb025 |
| CNN, 2 September 2025 | a379a39850148c59 |
| Executive Order 14347, GovInfo | 1f768952347ec2e4 |
| National Security Strategy, The White House | df82a9913ce702b9 |
| CNN, 16 December 2025 | c1411c6416ef283a |
| Louisiana Illuminator, 21 December 2025 | 1febb3f5d86b8821 |
| ABC News, December 2025 | 8af8c9e8807cc00d |
| Military Times, 3 January 2026 | 1acb30b16fb073e1 |
| Department of State, 7 January 2026 | d004a1ac71b3857a |
| The White House, 7 January 2026 | 8ff2909c35607707 |
| CNBC, 9 January 2026 | 0ba72cf6128dee61 |
| NPR, 17 January 2026 | 486b55e1e1edeb48 |
| CBC, 21 January 2026 | 4de581151a487aee |
| NPR, 21 January 2026 | 452121953187107e |
| The American Presidency Project, 29 January 2026 | 4ab5a9e9976c1274 |
| CNN, 30 January 2026 | fbd618bca7bf8683 |
| NBC News, January 2026 | 559ea4e14b68e46e |
| Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, Supreme Court of the United States | 6412456ead56a0b5 |
| Proclamation 11012, Federal Register | 2f8b6e611df884c8 |
| CNN, 28 February 2026 | c701fe8ba0e1cdb5 |
| NPR, 1 March 2026 | 55c67e41c8d383b2 |
| CNBC, 7 July 2026 | 5252ffc24b1fe886 |
| Associated Press, 8 July 2026 | d27af7faefb3331a |
| Proclamations 11046, 11047, 11048 and 11056, GovInfo | f8e536b413199373 93c21e5645c9aa0b e4b7af55b55baaa2 29c5689b61bdee6e |
| The Hub, 25 August 2026 | a5d8c152689e8096 |
| Global News, August 2026 | 9802efddf06c05ff |
| HuffPost, 24 August 2026 | 914ecaa4e34157c1 |
| NPR, 16 September 2026 | bbe0266574fb68b6 |
| NPR, 19 September 2026 | 450786f391b45e04 |
| The White House, 22 September 2026 | e60943b71ade62c4 |
| North Atlantic Treaty, nato.int | a63656650dffe629 |
| NORAD Agreement, Canada Treaty Series E105060 | 773e001b73a8b3bd |
| CBC, 14 September 2017 | cf405e8049398974 |
| NORAD and USNORTHCOM FOIA office, 23 September 2026 | 3850adcb8c3cfad3 |
| CBC, 25 September 2026 | 350be2c824cd2345 |
| Northwood Declaration, GOV.UK content record | 101e08ccb36d5448 |
| UK-France Nuclear Steering Group, GOV.UK content record | d5788f050f5fabda |
| Ministry of Defence guide to the deterrent, 25 September 2026 | 5d4e1ff87434e54a |
| Australia-Canada Joint Statement, 5 March 2026 | 57649eddf0940403 |
| Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, answer of the secretariat | c2819c9f5c6dd614 |
| Citizenship Act, Justice Laws Website, 28 September 2026 | 23e06e834187dde8 |
Citation: Danilo Dzyuban, “Reformation” (29 September 2026).